A Comparative Study of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models for Real-Time UAV Positioning Error Estimation

Mei Yang, Hua Zhuo, Jun-Gang Ma, Guo-Hui Niu, Zulmira Mamtimin, Mei Tao, Ya-Qiong Zhu, Jun Li, Murat Abdughani, Aihemaitijiang Sidike

Accurate real-time positioning of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is critical for navigation and mapping but remains challenging in complex environments due to signal blockages and multipath effects. This study presents a comparative framework for real-time error prediction of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), evaluating two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost) and a deep learning model (Long Short-Term Memory network) against an Extended Kalman Filter baseline. A high-precision total station provides ground-truth coordinates, enabling the derivation of positioning error labels from synchronized GNSS raw data. Among the evaluated models, the tree-based XGBoost model achieves a significantly lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) and a considerably higher Coefficient of Determination (R2) score than other models in predicting positioning deviations. The high-accuracy error predictions from the optimal model establish the core of a software-only solution for positioning integrity. The framework demonstrates that reliable, real-time error estimates can be derived directly from observation data, providing the essential input required for future compensation systems without necessitating additional hardware.