Signal or Noise? Understanding Generative Models for Real-World Sensor Time Series

Zitao Shuai, Zongzhe Xu, Yuntian Wu, Sirui Li, Tianhong Li, Yuzhe Yang

Generative models have changed how machine learning represents complex data distributions, especially in language and vision, yet many real-world systems are observed instead as continuous, high-dimensional, and noisy sensor time series. Existing generative modeling of sensor data, however, remains fragmented across modalities, datasets, and task formulations, limiting a systematic understanding of when, how, and why generative models succeed or fail in real-world settings. To address this gap, we introduce SensorGen, a large-scale study of sensor-signal generation spanning 14 settings across 4 domains, 7 datasets, and 12 signal modalities. Leveraging SensorGen, we systematically evaluate generative models from five major families and uncover three key findings: (1) flow-matching models provide strong overall performance across most settings; (2) signal properties matter, with demographic covariates improving longitudinal generation and time-frequency modeling improving high-frequency signal generation; and (3) generated signals have practical utility beyond visual realism, with scaling improving generation quality and synthetic data improving downstream performance. Together, SensorGen establishes a broader understanding of design choices, evaluation protocols, and failure modes in real-world sensor data generation.