How many days of early behavior suffice for subscription churn prediction? In the public KKBox dataset, the early indicator of churn is typically an indicator of someone's contract status; however, when looking in the heavily churned manual-renewal segment, having access to early behavior creates a substantial increase in prediction for that specific segment (PR +0.10 at 120 days). A nine-window sufficiency curve shows a diminishing-returns knee in a 45-90 day band. However, stress-testing over three cohort/task designs shows that this curve is singular to the design being tested; for example, in our test with a moving target, the curve inverts and can shift depending on the feature set used. Therefore, any window-sufficiency claim should state its cohort construction, target definition, and feature families. All evidence is from one music-streaming dataset; the mechanism should generalize but the magnitudes may not.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating materials prediction and design by enabling efficient exploration of chemical and structural spaces, with particular promise for novel materials discovery. However, novelty in materials discovery encompasses chemical plausibility, stru…
Designing polyimide structures with specific glass transition temperatures (Tg) is highly challenging. Existing methods primarily focus on target-conditioned generation, lacking an assessment of the consistency between the generated structure and the target properties. This leads…
Learning world models that infer environment dynamics from high-dimensional observations and predict outcomes under candidate actions is central to planning and control. Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) provide a compelling framework for learning such models in re…
Volatility forecasting is dominated by persistence and measurement noise, leaving limited residual structure for nonlinear models to exploit. We introduce Susceptible Architectures (SUSA), a reservoir-design principle for volatility forecasting, and its two concrete implementatio…
Do independently trained language models come to represent the same thing in the same way? We answer for code, extending a recently introduced concept-circuit extraction method to a 2x2 design -- Python and Rust crossed with Qwen2.5-Coder-7B and DeepSeek-Coder-V1-6.7B -- and meas…
Faithful explanations of time-series classifiers should identify subsequences that are not only sufficient to preserve a black-box model's prediction, but also necessary for maintaining it. However, existing sufficiency-oriented methods can assign high importance to spurious subs…