Driving Pattern Analysis, Gear Shift Classification, and Fuel Efficiency in Light-Duty Vehicles: A Machine Learning Approach Using GPS and OBD II PID Signals

Juan José Molina-Campoverde, Juan Zurita-Jara, Paúl Molina-Campoverde

This study proposes an automatic gear shift classification algorithm in M1 category vehicles using data acquired through the onboard diagnostic system (OBD II) and GPS. The proposed approach is based on the analysis of identification parameters (PIDs), such as manifold absolute pressure (MAP), revolutions per minute (RPM), vehicle speed (VSS), torque, power, stall times, and longitudinal dynamics, to determine the efficiency and behavior of the vehicle in each of its gears. In addition, the unsupervised K-means algorithm was implemented to analyze vehicle gear changes, identify driving patterns, and segment the data into meaningful groups. Machine learning techniques, including K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), decision trees, logistic regression, and Support Vector Machines (SVMs), were employed to classify gear shifts accurately. After a thorough evaluation, the KNN (Fine KNN) model proved to be the most effective, achieving an accuracy of 99.7%, an error rate of 0.3%, a precision of 99.8%, a recall of 99.7%, and an F1-score of 99.8%, outperforming other models in terms of accuracy, robustness, and balance between metrics. A multiple linear regression model was developed to estimate instantaneous fuel consumption (in L/100 km) using the gear predicted by the KNN algorithm and other relevant variables. The model, built on over 66,000 valid observations, achieved an R2 of 0.897 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.06, indicating a strong fit. Results showed that higher gears (3, 4, and 5) are associated with lower fuel consumption. In contrast, a neutral gear presented the highest levels of consumption and variability, especially during prolonged idling periods in heavy traffic conditions. In future work, we propose integrating this algorithm into driver assistance systems (ADAS) and exploring its applicability in autonomous vehicles to enhance real-time decision making. Such integration could optimize gear shift timing based on dynamic factors like road conditions, traffic density, and driver behavior, ultimately contributing to improved fuel efficiency and overall vehicle performance.