Superior PM2.5 Estimation by Integrating Aerosol Fine Mode Data from the Himawari-8 Satellite in Deep and Classical Machine Learning Models

Zhou Zang, Dan Li, Yushan Guo, Wenzhong Shi, Xing Yan

Artificial intelligence is widely applied to estimate ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from satellite data by constructing the relationship between the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and the surface PM2.5 concentration. However, aerosol size properties, such as the fine mode fraction (FMF), are rarely considered in satellite-based PM2.5 modeling, especially in machine learning models. This study investigated the linear and non-linear relationships between fine mode AOT (fAOT) and PM2.5 over five AERONET stations in China (Beijing, Baotou, Taihu, Xianghe, and Xuzhou) using AERONET fAOT and 5-year (2015–2019) ground-level PM2.5 data. Results showed that the fAOT separated by the FMF (fAOT = AOT × FMF) had significant linear and non-linear relationships with surface PM2.5. Then, the Himawari-8 V3.0 and V2.1 FMF and AOT (FMF&AOT-PM2.5) data were tested as input to a deep learning model and four classical machine learning models. The results showed that FMF&AOT-PM2.5 performed better than AOT (AOT-PM2.5) in modelling PM2.5 estimations. The FMF was then applied in satellite-based PM2.5 retrieval over China during 2020, and FMF&AOT-PM2.5 was found to have a better agreement with ground-level PM2.5 than AOT-PM2.5 on dust and haze days. The better linear correlation between PM2.5 and fAOT on both haze and dust days (dust days: R = 0.82; haze days: R = 0.56) compared to AOT (dust days: R = 0.72; haze days: R = 0.52) partly contributed to the superior accuracy of FMF&AOT-PM2.5. This study demonstrates the importance of including the FMF to improve PM2.5 estimations and emphasizes the need for a more accurate FMF product that enables superior PM2.5 retrieval.