AI-Driven Modeling of Near-Mid-Air Collisions Using Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing Techniques
As global airspace operations grow increasingly complex, the risk of near-mid-air collisions (NMACs) poses a persistent and critical challenge to aviation safety. Traditional collision-avoidance systems, while effective in many scenarios, are limited by rule-based logic and reliance on transponder data, particularly in environments featuring diverse aircraft types, unmanned aerial systems (UAS), and evolving urban air mobility platforms. This paper introduces a novel, integrative machine learning framework designed to analyze NMAC incidents using the rich, contextual information contained within the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) database. The methodology is structured around three pillars: (1) natural language processing (NLP) techniques are applied to extract latent topics and semantic features from pilot and crew incident narratives; (2) cluster analysis is conducted on both textual and structured incident features to empirically define distinct typologies of NMAC events; and (3) supervised machine learning models are developed to predict pilot decision outcomes (evasive action vs. no action) based on integrated data sources. The analysis reveals seven operationally coherent topics that reflect communication demands, pattern geometry, visibility challenges, airspace transitions, and advisory-driven interactions. A four-cluster solution further distinguishes incident contexts ranging from tower-directed approaches to general aviation pattern and cruise operations. The Random Forest model produces the strongest predictive performance, with topic-based indicators, miss distance, altitude, and operating rule emerging as influential features. The results show that narrative semantics provide measurable signals of coordination load and acquisition difficulty, and that integrating text with structured variables enhances the prediction of maneuvering decisions in NMAC situations. These findings highlight opportunities to strengthen radio practice, manage pattern spacing, improve mixed equipage awareness, and refine alerting in short-range airport area encounters.