The manifold hypothesis posits that high-dimensional data are concentrated near a low-dimensional embedded manifold. Recent advances in mixture variational autoencoders (VAEs) provide a powerful tool for extracting such underlying structure in a faithful manner. The resulting geometric structure naturally introduces local and global relationships among variables, thereby providing a systematic way of imputing missing data. We propose a model-based imputation method that enables sampling from \( p(\bm{x}_{\mathrm{mis}} \mid \bm{x}_{\mathrm{obs}}) \) via a sampling-importance-resampling (SIR) procedure, which can be further augmented with a joint diffusion model in the latent space. Our method imputes missing data while respecting the underlying geometry, achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art procedures, quantifies uncertainty in the imputations, and is model-based, thereby enabling on-the-fly imputation without rerunning the entire procedure.
The modeling of hydrometeorological time series with limited observations is a key challenge in the monitoring of hydro-systems and water resources, as well as for flood or drought risk assessment. Due to the high variability of the underlying processes and the sparsity of availa…
Prior classical-ML learning-curve work fits power laws to tree, linear, and kernel models on tabular data, but at small scale: typically one curve, one team, a handful of cells. We present a distributed classroom-scale replication: 127 students each ran a fixed protocol on 3 assi…
We study the expected improvement (EI) policy for minimizing a deterministic objective function $f$ on a nonempty compact set $\mathcal X \subset\mathbb R^d$. We assume that $f$ belongs to the RKHS $\mathcal H_k$ of a continuous positive-semidefinite kernel $k$ on $\mathcal X$. F…
Double Machine Learning (DML) is a popular approach for treatment effect estimation in various settings, which allows a wide range of flexible machine learning methods to be used for nuisance parameter estimation while preserving valid inference. In practice, however, applied res…
Density modes provide a localized and interpretable summary of multimodal distributions, but their estimation under rigorous differential privacy constraints remains largely unexplored. We study differentially private recovery of density modes for multivariate distributions under…
Organizations increasingly rely on sequential experimentation to improve decision-making. While the multi-armed bandit literature has developed algorithms with strong asymptotic regret guarantees, many practical applications operate over finite and externally imposed horizons. Mo…