Bayesian online learning promises uncertainty-aware prediction on data streams, but its performance hinges on inferential choices, including learning rates, prior distributions and variational families, which are usually fixed before seeing the stream. We address this by treating Bayesian update rules as experts and aggregating the Bayesian experts according to sequential predictive losses. We prove that the resulting aggregate competes with the best expert in hindsight at an aggregation cost determined by how each expert's per-round performance is evaluated. We instantiate the framework in online conformal inference and Gaussian process regression. The conformal inference application yields a smoothed Bayesian counterpart of adaptive conformal inference with long-run randomized coverage, while the Gaussian process application gives an oracle inequality in cumulative predictive Kullback-Leibler risk and adaptation to unknown Hölder smoothness up to logarithmic factors. Experiments show that the aggregate tracks strong experts without oracle expert selection.
As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed, reliable and efficient mechanisms for distinguishing AI-generated text from human-written content have become essential. Statistical watermarking has emerged as a promising solution, yet most existing methods are typicall…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) with machine learning is an increasingly important tool for solving inverse problems in science and engineering, including parameter inference and the inversion of detector effects. We provide an overview of the Bayesian and frequentist statistica…
Imitation learning (IL)---training an agent to replicate expert behavior from demonstrations---underpins applications from robotics to language model training. Standard approaches such as Behavior Cloning (BC) are known to suffer from compounding errors and performance plateaus,…
Longitudinal studies often collect data at sparse, irregular, and unequally spaced time points. Such heterogeneity is often driven by subject-specific covariates, yet existing methods have been restricted to a scalar endpoint value, completely neglecting the underlying response t…
Learned generative priors are increasingly used for ill-posed Bayesian inverse problems, their posterior uncertainty treated as earned from data. But training one requires truths, scarce in seismic and medical imaging, so the recourse is an archive of legacy reconstructions---pri…
Modeling shared and subject-specific structure in multisubject spatiotemporal data remains challenging, particularly in neuroimaging, where both spatial and temporal patterns exhibit rich variability across subjects. Existing matrix and tensor decompositions provide interpretable…