Machine and Deep Learning Algorithms for COVID-19 Mortality Prediction Using Clinical and Radiomic Features

Laura Verzellesi, Andrea Botti, Marco Bertolini, Valeria Trojani, Gianluca Carlini, Andrea Nitrosi, Filippo Monelli, Giulia Besutti, Gastone Castellani, Daniel Remondini, Gianluca Milanese, Stefania Croci, Nicola Sverzellati, Carlo Salvarani, Mauro Iori

Aim: Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) predictive models have been employed widely in clinical settings. Their potential support and aid to the clinician of providing an objective measure that can be shared among different centers enables the possibility of building more robust multicentric studies. This study aimed to propose a user-friendly and low-cost tool for COVID-19 mortality prediction using both an ML and a DL approach. Method: We enrolled 2348 patients from several hospitals in the Province of Reggio Emilia. Overall, 19 clinical features were provided by the Radiology Units of Azienda USL-IRCCS of Reggio Emilia, and 5892 radiomic features were extracted from each COVID-19 patient’s high-resolution computed tomography. We built and trained two classifiers to predict COVID-19 mortality: a machine learning algorithm, or support vector machine (SVM), and a deep learning model, or feedforward neural network (FNN). In order to evaluate the impact of the different feature sets on the final performance of the classifiers, we repeated the training session three times, first using only clinical features, then employing only radiomic features, and finally combining both information. Results: We obtained similar performances for both the machine learning and deep learning algorithms, with the best area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, or AUC, obtained exploiting both clinical and radiomic information: 0.803 for the machine learning model and 0.864 for the deep learning model. Conclusions: Our work, performed on large and heterogeneous datasets (i.e., data from different CT scanners), confirms the results obtained in the recent literature. Such algorithms have the potential to be included in a clinical practice framework since they can not only be applied to COVID-19 mortality prediction but also to other classification problems such as diabetic prediction, asthma prediction, and cancer metastases prediction. Our study proves that the lesion’s inhomogeneity depicted by radiomic features combined with clinical information is relevant for COVID-19 mortality prediction.