Assessing the Feasibility of Satellite-Based Machine Learning for Turbidity Estimation in the Dynamic Mersey Estuary (Case Study: River Mersey, UK)

Deelaram Nangir, Manolia Andredaki, Iacopo Carnacina

The monitoring of turbidity in estuarine environments is a challenging essential task for managing water quality and ecosystem health. This study focuses on the lower reaches of the River Mersey, Liverpool. Harmonized Sentinel-2 MSI Level-2A imagery was integrated with in situ measurements from seven Environment Agency monitoring stations for two consecutive years (January 2023–January 2025). The workflow included image preprocessing, spectral index calculation, and the application of four machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Regressor, XGBoost, Support Vector Regressor, and K-Nearest Neighbors. Among these, Gradient Boosting Regressor achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.84; RMSE = 15.0 FTU), demonstrating the suitability of ensemble tree-based methods for capturing non-linear interactions between spectral indices and water quality parameters. Residual analysis revealed systematic errors linked to tidal cycles, depth variation, and salinity-driven stratification, underscoring the limitations of purely data-driven approaches. The novelty of this study lies in demonstrating the feasibility and proof-of-concept of using machine learning to derive spatially explicit turbidity estimates under data-limited estuarine conditions. These results open opportunities for future integration with Computational Fluid Dynamics models to enhance temporal forecasting and physical realism in estuarine monitoring systems. The proposed methodology contributes to sustainable coastal management, pollution monitoring, and climate resilience, while offering a transferable framework for other estuaries worldwide.