Quantifying Grazing Intensity from Aboveground Biomass Differences Using Satellite Data and Machine Learning

Ritu Su, Yong Yang, Shujuan Chang, Gudamu A, Xiangjun Yun, Xiangyang Song, Aijun Liu

Accurately quantifying grazing intensity (GI) is crucial for assessing grassland utilization and supporting sustainable management. Traditional livestock-based approaches cannot capture the spatial heterogeneity of grazing or its dynamic response to climate variability. The objective of this study was to develop a remote sensing-based quantitative framework for estimating GI across the Inner Mongolian grasslands. The framework integrates MODIS vegetation indices, ERA5-Land climate variables, topographic factors, and field-measured data and GI was quantified as the proportional difference between potential and satellite-derived aboveground biomass (AGB), providing a spatially explicit measure of forage utilization. In this framework, potential AGB (AGBp) represents the climate-driven growth capacity under ungrazed conditions reconstructed using machine learning models, whereas satellite-derived AGB (AGBs) denotes the standing AGB remaining under current grazing pressure. Validation using 324 paired grazed–ungrazed plots demonstrated strong agreement between modeled and observed GI (R2 = 0.65, RMSE = 0.18). This AGB-difference-based approach provides an effective and scalable tool for large-scale rangeland monitoring, offering quantitative insights into grass–livestock balance, ecological restoration, and adaptive management in arid and semi-arid regions.