We formalize verification in causal graphical models: deciding whether a given observational formula identifies a target interventional distribution. This opens a problem complementary to identification, asking not whether any identifying formula exists, but whether the given formula is identifying. We show that even sound and complete solutions to identification do not solve verification. We propose a falsifier as a first practical route forward, prove that it induces an almost-surely correct verifier for regular exponential-family models, and use the resulting verifier to develop the gateway test, which finds all sets admissible for use in a front-door formula.
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poo…
This paper studies the problem of identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO), which captures the potential outcome of an intervention while excluding the pathway transmitted through a mediator that researchers may wish to remove…
Imitation learning (IL)---training an agent to replicate expert behavior from demonstrations---underpins applications from robotics to language model training. Standard approaches such as Behavior Cloning (BC) are known to suffer from compounding errors and performance plateaus,…
In many applications of matching, the point clouds to be matched are not merely unstructured sets of points but rather samples from distributions with an intrinsic cluster structure. In such cases, as individual points are often interchangeable within a coherent region, finding a…
High-dimensional categorical data arise in genetics, biomedicine, and the social sciences, yet visualization tools for such data remain far less developed than those for continuous variables. Existing methods either scale poorly, rely heavily on low-dimensional displays detached…
When does a weight-tied looped transformer -- one block applied T times -- implement an actual algorithm? We answer with four findings from controlled populations on group word problems. (1) The budget law: free training installs a linear computation frontier, a mechanism that so…