SPI-Informed Drought Forecasts Integrating Advanced Signal Decomposition and Machine Learning Models

Anwar Ali Aldhafeeri, Mumtaz Ali, Mohsin Khan, Abdulhaleem H. Labban

Drought is an extremely terrifying environmental calamity, causing declining agricultural production, escalating food prices, water scarcity, soil erosion, increased wildfire risks, and changes in ecosystem. Drought data is noisy and poses challenges to accurate forecasts due to it being nonstationary and non-linear. This research aims to construct a contemporary and novel approach termed as TVFEMD-GPR, crossbreeding time varying filter-based empirical mode decomposition (TVFEMD) and gaussian process regression (GPR), to model multi-scaler standardized precipitation index (SPI) to forecast droughts. At first, the statistically significant lags at (t − 1) were computed via partial auto-correlation function (PACF). In the second step, the TVFEMD splits the (t − 1) lag into several factors named as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residual components. The third step is the final step, where the GPR model took the IMFs and residual as input predictors to forecast one-month SPI (SPI1), three-months SPI (SPI3), six-months SPI (SPI6), and twelve-months SPI1 (SPI12) for Mackay and Springfield stations in Australia. To benchmark the new TVFEMD-GPR model, the long short-term memory (LSTM), boosted regression tree (BRT), and cascaded forward neural network (CFNN) were also developed to assess their accuracy in drought forecasting. Moreover, the TVFEMD was integrated to create TVFEMD-LSTM, TVFEMD-BRT, and TVFEMD-CFNN models to forecast multi-scaler SPI where the TVFEMD-GPR surpassed all comparable models in both stations. The outcomes proved that the TVFEMD-GPR outperformed comparable models by acquiring ENS = 0.5054, IA = 0.8082, U95% = 1.8943 (SPI1), ENS = 0.6564, IA = 0.8893, U95% = 1.5745(SPI3), ENS = 0.8237, IA = 0.9502, U95% = 1.1123 (SPI6), and ENS = 0.9285, IA = 0.9813, U95% = 0.7228 (SPI12) for Mackay Station. For Station 2 (Springfield), the TVFEMD-GPR obtained these metrics as ENS = 0.5192, IA = 0.8182, U95% = 1.9100 (SPI1), ENS = 0.6716, IA = 0.8953, U95% = 1.5163 (SPI3), ENS = 0.8289, IA = 0.9534, U95% = 1.1296 (SPI6), and ENS = 0.9311, IA = 0.9829, and U95% = 0.7695 (SPI12). The research exhibits the practicality of the TVFEMD-GPR model to anticipate drought events, minimize their impacts, and implement timely mitigation strategies. Moreover, the TVFEMD-GPR can assist in early warning systems, better water management, and reducing economic losses.